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68: Spies, Lies, and the Shape of 2026
Spies, Lies & Cybercrime by Eric O'Neill
Eric ONeill
January 06, 2026
In partnership with
A quick note before we get to the title story and predictions for this year. Most of us woke up from vacation wondering whether the story of a just after midnight raid on Venezuela was a deepfake. It wasn't. Instead, we witnessed one of the most incredible espionage operations in history.
Operation Absolute Resolve reads less like today’s headlines and more like vintage Tom Clancy or Brad Thor—Jack Ryan or Scot Harvath stepping off the page and into real life—but this was no fiction. At its core was exquisite CIA tradecraft: a months-long pattern-of-life operation on Nicolás Maduro and his wife, built patiently through HUMINT, trusted sources inside the regime, drone surveillance, and other classified techniques that, for obvious reasons, don’t make it into press briefings. This is the work I once did domestically with the FBI to catch spies and terrorists, and it’s reassuring to see that the fundamentals—human intelligence, persistence, discipline—still matter.
Strip away the spectacle and the operation was almost absurd in its purity: an immense U.S. military escort—more than 150 aircraft from 20 regional bases—so FBI agents could serve an arrest warrant on an indicted narco-terrorist. Incredible in scope, but precise in execution.
Fire at Fuerte Tiuna, Venezuela's largest military complex.
And then there’s the detail few are discussing: the not-so-subtle hint dropped in a Trump press conference that the lights going out in Caracas may not have been accidental, but the result of a sophisticated U.S. cyber infiltration ahead of the first bombing run. If true, it quietly demonstrates something I’ve argued for years—that the best way to deter China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea from launching a coordinated cyberattack on U.S. critical infrastructure is to prove, unmistakably, that we can hit back just as hard. Mutual assured cyber destruction. That message likely landed hard in Beijing and Moscow, and that’s not a bad thing.
The legal, political, and geopolitical fallout will be debated for months—was it lawful, should Congress have been notified, was this war or policing, does it spark chaos or open the door for democracy and the return of eight million displaced Venezuelans? All of that matters. But one truth stands apart: spies still change history. They undermine regimes, depose dictators, and win wars long before the shooting starts. Let’s hope our spies stay very, very good at it.
Maduro after his arrest and exfiltration to the United States.
Now on to this week’s story!
Title Story
Spies, Lies, and the Shape of 2026
The board meeting ended early.
A video had surfaced overnight—grainy but convincing—showing a CEO saying something she never said, agreeing to something she never agreed to, in a tone only her closest colleagues would recognize. To the company’s horror, the video leaked and made the national news. The legal team watched it twice. HR watched it once. The board didn’t finish the first viewing before the decision was made.
Within 48 hours, the CEO resigned.
Weeks later, forensic experts proved the video was a deepfake. Every frame synthetic. Every word fabricated. The company never corrected the record. It didn’t need to. The damage had already landed.
That’s the world 2026 is sprinting toward—not because technology is evil, but because trust has become fragile, fast, and exploitable. To make the world safe from a new age of deception and deepfakes, we will need to evolve.
Here’s what I believe is coming next, but reply to this email or comments about what concerns you into the future and what you are excited about in the world of technology. Who knows, your idea or concerns could become my next newsletter!
And stay tuned for next week’s issue! I’ll be posting the full interview with actor, director, producer, entrepreneur and my friend Ryan Phillippe! You will have to be subscribed to see it. So check bye box below and make certain you’ve dropped me your email.
The Bad News
1. Deepfake Blackmail Reaches the Boardroom
The first major corporate takedown will be powered entirely by fake evidence.
AI-generated audio and video will be convincing enough to force resignations, tank stock prices, and trigger regulatory scrutiny. Investigations will eventually reveal the truth, but truth will move too slowly to matter. In 2026, viral perception, magnified by social media and the 24-hour news cycle will outrun proof every time. Now imagine this scenario used as deepfake opposition research against a political opponent. Worried yet? |  Deepfakes |
2. Critical Infrastructure Attacks Go Quiet
The most dangerous cyberattacks won’t look like attacks at all.
One of the major things that keeps me up at night is fear of a catastrophic power grid critical infrastructure attack. But attacks in the new year may be more nefarious. Instead of blackouts or explosions, systems will simply underperform: water pressure drops, hospital systems lag, shipping delays compound. Everything will still “work,” just badly enough to erode confidence. Attribution will be nearly impossible, and that will be by design. |  Sabotage |
3. Ransomware Becomes Customer-Friendly
Cybercriminals will discover what legitimate businesses already know: good customer service closes deals.
Ransomware has been a scourge across the globe for decades with an innovation race between cybercrime and cybersecurity. To earn more profit, Cybercrime syndicates will innovate like legitimate businesses. Ransomware groups will offer live chat, payment plans, and polite negotiation. Victims will pay faster when criminals feel organized and predictable. Cybercrime will model the mafia and will look less chaotic and more professional. |  Ransomware |
4. Your Digital Twin Commits a Crime
Someone will act as you—and you’ll have the burden of proof!
AI is already replicating voices, writing styles, and decision-making patterns with disturbing accuracy. It is even threatening to replace actors and AI avatar social media accounts have enormous followings. Now image cybercriminals that use AI to become you. Contracts will be signed, instructions issued, and funds moved without the need for physical access. Courts and insurers will struggle to answer a once-unthinkable question: was it you or your doppelgänger. |  Doppelgänger |
5. Cybercrime and Organized Crime Fully Merge
The keyboard will officially outperform the gun.
Drug cartels, trafficking networks, and traditional crime syndicates will move toward cybercrime as their primary revenue engine. Digital fraud will fund real-world violence. Law enforcement will be forced to chase both malware and kinetic crime at the same time. We have already seen this begin with cryptojacking, a crime where the victim is stalked online for having large cryptocurrency accounts and then kidnapped physically to coerce them into providing the keys. |  Organized Crime |
The Good News
As criminals evolve in 2026 to scam us, cybersecurity will continue to race against them. The next five predictions hint at a brighter future where we make things harder for the bad guys.
6. Deepfake Detection Becomes Mandatory
“Prove it’s really you” will become a daily requirement.
Banks, courts, employers, and government agencies will deploy real-time voice and video authentication. It will feel inconvenient and intrusive—until people realize the alternative is institutional collapse. Verification will become part of civic infrastructure. We will install apps on our phones and devices that identify deepfakes and provide intelligence into all our communications. |  Detectors |
7. Critical Systems Go Analog—On Purpose
The future of resilience will look suspiciously old-school.
Many companies are already returning to tape backups to preserve data in a format that cybercriminals and spies cannot access digitally. Manual overrides, air gaps, and human checkpoints will return to essential systems. Some things are safest when they cannot be reached remotely. |  Analog Defense |
8. Insider Threat Programs Finally Get Serious
The most dangerous attackers will already have credentials.
Organizations will stop treating insider risk as a technical failure and start treating it as a leadership and culture problem. Access will tighten, behavior will be monitored, and trust will be verified continuously. Espionage prevention will become part of the corporate mindset and technology that continuously analyzes data using AI analytics will become mandatory. |  Spy Hunting |
9. Cybercrime Loses Its Easy Money
Ransomware will stop being a gold rush.
International cooperation will improve, asset seizures will accelerate, and payment channels will narrow. Cybercrime units across the globe will share information and hunt criminals in their own borders. Criminals won’t disappear, but margins will shrink. When cybercrime stops paying well, fewer people choose it. |  Collaboration |
10. Digital Identity Gets Rebuilt—and the Password Finally Dies
We may finally witness the end of the password.
Governments and industry will accelerate the shift toward cryptographic identity, biometrics, hardware-backed authentication, and zero-trust access models. Passwords—long broken, endlessly reused, and trivially stolen—will begin to fade from critical systems. Identity won’t be perfect, but impersonation will become harder, riskier, and more expensive than it has ever been. |  A New You Online |
I’m Excited for 2026
For all the noise and anxiety around what’s coming, here’s the good news: we’re finally waking up.
2026 won’t be the year deception disappears—but it will be the year we stop being shocked by it. We’re building better systems, smarter defenses, and healthier habits around a simple truth: trust isn’t granted once anymore; it’s earned every day. That’s progress.
The people and organizations willing to adapt will do more than survive—they’ll be stronger, harder to fool, and far more resilient than anything that came before. This isn’t the end of trust. It’s the upgrade.
Personally, I’m excited. I’m ready. And I think 2026 has the potential to be a turning point, not a breaking point.
If you want to start preparing now, not later, that’s exactly why I wrote Spies, Lies, and Cybercrime. It’s a practical guide to how deception actually works—and what you can do today to protect yourself, your family, and your organization before the next headline hits.
The future is coming either way.
This time, we don’t have to meet it unprepared.
Get the Book: Spies, Lies, and Cybercrime
If you haven’t already, please buy SPIES, LIES, AND CYBERCRIME. If you already have, thank you, and please consider gifting some to friends and colleagues. It’s the perfect holiday gift and stocking stuffer!
📖 Support a local bookstore. Get a Signed copy
🎤 I’m on the road doing speaking events. If your company or organization is interested in bringing me to a stage in 2026, book me to speak at your next event.
If you’ve ever paused at an email, login alert, or message and thought, “Could this happen to me?”—my Linkedin Learning course is for you! Login and start learning here.
My new hub, PROTECT, is now live at ericoneill.net/protect and it’s built for anyone who wants to stop cybercriminal scammers cold.
Appearance of the Week
Stay tuned for NEXT week! A conversation with Actor, Producer and Director Ryan Phillippe, the man that played me in the movie Breach. Subscribe now to ensure you don’t miss the amazing content I’m cooking up for 2026.
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